No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 19 08:02:02 UTC 2010.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 19 08:02:02 UTC 2010.

Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010 VALID 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SRN PLAINS DAY 6 /WEDNESDAY/ AND CONTINUE INTO THE SERN STATES DAY 7 /THURSDAY/. HOWEVER...INTRUSION OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF WILL OCCUR DAY 2-3. WITH ONLY SLOW MOISTENING OF THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 5 AS CP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD AND ONLY WEAK CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM/SWRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER AS OF 06Z WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD AND PHASE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES BY AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER SERN NM/SWRN TX IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY BUILD SWD AND EWD...DRIVING A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S.. ELSEWHERE...BRIEF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AFFECT SRN CA/SWRN AZ IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH DESPITE LOW RELATIVE Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD AS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OFF SERN CONUS OVER ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJOINING PLAINS AHEAD OF TWO PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS... 1. INITIALLY OVER SRN NV...AND FCST TO PIVOT SEWD AND EWD ACROSS NWRN/N-CENTRAL MEX THIS PERIOD. 2. NOW MOVING SSEWD OVER WRN MT...FCST TO CROSS 4-CORNERS REGION AROUND 20/00Z...DECELERATING AS IT MOVES SEWD OVER REMAINDER NM DURING ENSUING 12 HOURS. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT THU MAR 18 2010 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PATTERN TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY AS SERN CONUS CYCLONE WEAKENS AND MOVES EWD OFFSHORE SERN ATLANTIC COAST...AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS MUCH OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN CORNER BC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS MT/AB -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TO NERN UT AND SWRN WY BY END OF PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE AFFECTING S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND...SEE DAY-2 AND DAY-3 OUTLOOKS. INITIALLY SEPARATE PERTURBATION OVER CENTRAL/SWRN NV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SSEWD TO SERN CA AND NRN BAJA. BROAD ZONE OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 18 20:22:10 UTC 2010.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 18 20:22:10 UTC 2010.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER E TX THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NW...THE FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM NV INTO CO...AS WELL AS ACROSS SW NEB INTO NWRN KS LATE. Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE E INTO ONTARIO BY 12Z/FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAILS SW FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN...AND WILL MOVE SWD TOWARD AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND TROUGH DIGGING S ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...A S/W TROUGH EXITING LA /WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT/ IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010 VALID 201200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY/DAY 3...A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AS WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE N...AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR DROPS RH VALUES INTO THE 30S. MEANWHILE...AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO FL OUT OF THE WRN ATLANTIC...ACCOMPANIED BY MIN RH VALUES POSSIBLY AS LOW AS THE 30S ALONG WITH GENERALLY WEAK SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS. THE GREAT PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE E TOWARD THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SERN STATES ON SUNDAY/DAY 4...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FL PANHANDLE. THE FRONT WILL THEN EXIT FL ON MONDAY/DAY 5...WITH Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010 VALID 211200Z - 261200Z ...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA... THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA/GEORGIA AND FLORIDA SUNDAY...PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONE LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BUT THE LACK OF A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...AND ITS IMPACT ON BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... REMAINS A CONCERN AS A POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LARGE TO REASONABLY OUTLOOK A SEVERE RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO PROBABLY WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE BY THE Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Usage: /web/spcweb/rss/AC_description_cdata.pl -f AC_Filename -w [1|2|3|4]

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Usage: /web/spcweb/rss/AC_description_cdata.pl -f AC_Filename -w [1|2|3|4]

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 17 20:02:02 UTC 2010.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 17 20:02:02 UTC 2010.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010 VALID 191200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD WRN NM ON FRIDAY/DAY 3. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...FOCUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER W TX. STRONG DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS SRN-SERN NM AND SW TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO EMERGE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL AID IN FOCUSING A WARM/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN WRN TEXAS...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PROBABLE. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Usage: /web/spcweb/rss/AC_description_cdata.pl -f AC_Filename -w [1|2|3|4]

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Usage: /web/spcweb/rss/AC_description_cdata.pl -f AC_Filename -w [1|2|3|4]

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2010 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SERN QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OWING TO PROGRESSION OF ONE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS FL AND THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST...AND ANOTHER SEWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NW COASTS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH MEAN RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE E OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. IN ITS WAKE...SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN STATES FROM THE ERN PACIFIC. Read more